Episode 1228: Dangerous DH Ideas
Date June 8, 2018 Summary After Ben Lindbergh briefly mourns the Shohei Ohtani injury news, he and Jeff Sullivan banter about the…impassioned response to Ben’s article about the DH and pitcher hitting, a few DH-related fallacies, Steven Brault’s bullpen conversation, the newly patient Pablo Sandoval, the effective wildness of Tyler Chatwood, and the effective non-wildness of Miles Mikolas, follow up on the Vroom Vroom Guy and an ugly half-inning, and answer listener emails about the Alex Reyes injury, the historic struggles of Chris Davis, Jacob DeGrom’s hard luck, the breakout of Brandon Nimmo, immaculate innings vs. three-pitch innings, a “Mike Trout meets J.R. Smith” hypothetical, a Cubs kids’ book, how to describe complete games, eight-man lineups, and constructing a roster where pitchers never hit, plus a Stat Blast about hitters who’ve reached on catcher’s interference twice in one game and a dramatic reading of anti-DH tweets. Topics * Chris Davis * Alex Reyes * Tyler Chatwood * Jacob DeGrom * Mike Trout unaware of game situation * Good night Cubs * Is a 6 hitter a thing? * 3 pitch inning * Brandon Nimmo * 8 man hitting lineup * Replacing pitcher every time Intro Loose Fur, "You Were Wrong" Outro Built to Spill, "You Were Right" Banter * Shohei Ohtani UCL injury news prepodcast * Ben's DH “controversy” * Pablo Sandoval * Steven Brault * Vroom Vroom Guy * Baseball equivalent of JR Smith * Dodgers opener strategy * Deadspin mention of the Facebook group Email Questions * Steve: Not really a question, but at some point we have to talk about just how bad Chris Davis's year has been and the fact that he's been allowed to continue playing, right? As an Orioles fan it pains me, but it's also pretty amazing. We are watching (well a few of us are watching) the worst full season ever. * Ben (Silver Spring, MD): As an Orioles fan, I always expected the bottom to fall out on that enormous Chris Davis contract at some point. Still, I certainly was not prepared for "worst hitter in baseball in 2018" bad. So I have been obsessively checking his Fangraphs page trying to understand it. Immediately his HR/FB jumped out at me. The first time I looked it was around 8% for the year, and as of this writing it is 10.5%. For the previous six years it ranged from 22.6% to 29.6%, only dropping below 25% in 2014. It seems like there must be some relevant information here. How much is this the cause of his terrible overall numbers? Or, is it more a symptom of something else that is itself the cause? Is this the kind of thing we should expect to see regress by year's end, or is it more likely to stay this low? Are there other indicators that would suggest which? * Kyle (Patreon): ALEX REYES COMPS? With the unfortunate news coming out today about Alex Reyes missing the rest of the season due to surgery to repair his Lat muscle, it got me and some friends wondering “are there any comps for a young pitcher who pitched one season or less, (and pitched at a high level. He threw 46 innings with a 2.67 FIP, 10+ K/9, and 1.4 WAR) and then followed that up with missing two seasons with two different major injuries?” Is there much, if any, precedent for any pitcher, let alone former number 1 pitching prospect, to suffer the loss of 2 complete seasons to begin his career? Can you guys think of any players who have suffered a similar fate? Jason Isringhausen is the only one I could think of, and I’m not positive how well he lines up. How much should expectations for his future be lessened? Also, as Lat injuries are a bit less familiar to many of us than TJ surgery is, is that injury the type of thing that is recurring? * Doug: The Mets spoiled yet another gem of a start by DeGrom on Saturday. I see that his Baseball-Reference WAR has jumped to an NL-leading 3.7, which nearly matches his win total on the season (4). Has there ever been a case where a starting pitcher's WAR has exceeded his win total over the course of an entire season? * Mike: JR Smith’s lack of situational awareness in Game 1 of the NBA Finals got me thinking. How would Mike Trout’s value be affected if he never knew about the game situation? He never knew the score, the inning, the count, or how many outs while at the plate, on the bases, or in the field. (But let’s assume that he is aware of runners on the basepaths). * Barrett from Oklahoma: Has any team ever hit 2+ home runs, triples, doubles, and singles, and only scored 4 runs? Is this possible? Please discuss. * Aaron: Chicago sports radio AM 670 tweeted this after Jose Berrios beat the White Sox: “Jose Berrios' 6-hitter leads Twins past White Sox, 7-2” I find it odd to hear a pitching performance as a "6-hitter" which makes me wonder where the cut-off should be. Obviously, a no-hitter and 1-hitter are in play. What about a 2-hitter? Or a 3-hitter? * Andrew: Wouldn't it more impressive if instead of striking out 3 guys on 9 pitches that a pitcher threw less than 3 pitches in an inning total? With the relatively new walk rule, you could theoretically throw 1 pitch and get out of an inning. Intentionally load the bases (or at least the first two batters) and pray to the flying spaghetti monster that the next pitch is hit into a triple play. Anyhow, we all know that this is incredibly unlikely so my question is, there has to be at least someone that has thrown no more than 3 pitches in an inning. Who are they and in your opinion is that more impressive than the immaculate inning? It has to be more rare than an immaculate inning right? * Damian: If you drop minimum PA to 160, Brandon Nimmo is 8th in wRC+ with a BABIP 27 points lower than last year’s. Brandon Nimmo is likely not one of the 8 best hitters in baseball, but seems to be breaking out in a significant way. His game seems largely the same as last year, but with even fewer strikeouts and much more power. Trout is atop the WAR leader board. Do I believe in the Nimmo breakout being real now? * Jibraun: Given your article regarding the DH, I was wondering your position on going with 8 man lineups (skipping the pitchers' spot), rather than using a DH. This change would have the same benefit as a DH (no more pitchers batting, hooray), but it would also give a concomitant rise in plate appearances to the remaining batters in the lineup, making each position player's batting more valuable. * Erik (Sydney, Australia): Is it possible for an NL team to construct a roster where the pitcher does not hit? A pitcher could be replaced before every time his number comes up in the order, with relievers coming in in his stead. Rather than a starting pitcher pitching somewhere between 4 and 7 innings and relievers pitching about one innings each to get to nine, you'd have a starter throwing about 2-3 innings before his at bat arrives, replaced by a pinch hitter and a reliever who could either throw 2-3 himself, or a couple of relievers that throw an innings or so. This would be repeated at least twice to get to nine innings. Would such a process be possible within the limitations of a 25 man roster? Would a starter throwing 2-3 innings rather than 4-7 mean that they could throw more regularly than once every 6 days or so? Would back of the rotation starters be better suited to this diminished role? Teams would have to carry more position players if they're going to pinch hit this often, would a less stocked bullpen be able to meet this load? Stat Blast * Tommy Lastella reached base twice on catcher interference in 1 game. * There have been 7 instances of a player reaching base multiple times on catcher's interference. * Pat Corrales had gotten 2 catcher's interference calls in a game twice, within 2 months. Notes * “The internet is not a safe space for pro DH take, or an anti DH take" - Ben * Over past decade the best hitting pitchers have been on the Padres with a WPA of -35.88 ,the worst is the Braves with a WPA of - 45.27. * Pablo Sandoval hasn't swung at a first pitch since May 16th, he has only swung at 3 times out of 112 opportunities. * Steven Brault still hasn't struck out, 34 plate appearances now. * Bottom 6 in WAR this year, Jose Reyes, Kendries Morales, Ian Desmond, Pat Velicka, Kole Calhoun, Chris Davis. * Tyler Chatwood has the worst walk rate at 20.7% * A pitchers WAR has exceeded his win total only once Eddie Smith in 1937, 4.1 WAR and 4 wins. * Good night Cubs situation has happened 5 times and the teams has scored 3 runs. Links * https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1228-dangerous-dh-ideas/ * Link to Ben’s pitcher hitting article * Link to Joe Posnanski’s DH article * Link to Jeff’s Pablo Sandoval article * Link to Troy Carter’s Vroom Vroom Guy chronicles * Link to Troy’s Vroom Vroom video * Link to list of immaculate innings * Link to list of three-pitch innings * Link to list of games like the one described in Good Night, Cubs * Link to Travis Sawchick’s “spread of the opener” article * Link to Deadspin’s article about the EW Facebook group * Link to Arthur Rudolph’s data on EW episode length Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes